From reality to fantasy it is all about the “W”.  The majority of points from week eight came on the ground, but a 40 year old quarterback was near the top of some leagues.

Week eight was full of headlines around the league, but the most popular was Brett Favre returning to Green Bay.  He didn’t disappoint in drama or in fantasy leagues as he went 17-28 for 244 yards and four touchdowns.  The 40 year old hasn’t been a fantasy lock all year because of his inconsistency.  The strong running game that Minnesota has attributed to the lack of points Favre puts up.

But he wasn’t even the best quarterback on the semi-frozen tundra.  Aaron Rodgers went 26-41 for 287 yards with three touchdowns.  Rodgers was the top quarterback of the week in most leagues as Favre was the second best.

Overall the top point getter in most fantasy leagues was Chris Johnson from the Tennessee Titans.  The dash of the smash and dash duo ran for 228 yards and three touchdowns, giving him a high 30 point showing in some leagues.

The biggest surprise came from Texans running back Ryan Moats.  He has 126 yards and three touchdowns against the Buffalo Bills.  He also had two catches for 25 yards.  Moats is available in most leagues because he is the back-up to Steve Slaton, but because of Slaton’s recent fumblitis that he has caught, Moats looks to pick up some of the slack.

Johnson and Moats were just two of the five running backs that were in the top ten this week, proving that a strong running game will lead to victory.  Maurice Jones-Drew (177 yards, two touchdowns), Matt Forte (90 yards, two touchdowns), and Steven Jackson (149 yards, touchdown) were the other three.

Another shocker was the Chicago Bears defense.  Yes they did play the lowly Cleveland Browns, but what was shocking is that they held them to only two field goals.  The Bears also took an interception for a touchdown.

Reggie Wayne had the best day in receiving terms as he caught 12 balls for 147 yards and a touchdown.

Titan’s kicker Rob Bironas led all kickers by going 3-3 on extra points and 3-3 for field goals, two of which were 45+ yards.

A couple negative surprises for the week were let by the Denver Broncos allowing 30 points after multiple double digit fantasy point weeks.  Peyton Manning also did not throw a touchdown against the 49ers defense was surprising, but the future hall of famer is still a lock to start next week against Houston.

You ever have a group of friends, perhaps seven or eight guys? This is your crew. You guys do everything together: Football games, trips to Vegas, drinking nights, etc.

You consider them all really solid friends but there’s a special two or three guys who you are exceptionally tight with.

If there was a best friend draft, these guys would be your running backs. They’re dependable, consistent, rarely get sick on big drinking nights, and are just overall the best things to happen to you.

That is what my untradeables list is.

If you were forced to only keep one player and start all over again, and one of these guys isn’t on your team, I would advise you to throw your whole team in and start over.

As someone who believes that nearly everyone is tradeable, the exclusions from this list might come off as striking to a few of you.

For instance: Michael Turner is completely tradeable. You hoard him until he has one big week and then you pitch him for two players who’s numbers will supercede his own.

My untradeable list consists of guys whose points are irreplaceable or who have the potential to single-handedly win you a fantasy game. With no further ado, I present the untradeables.

1. Drew Brees

Could there have been a more obvious opening pick. No quaterback this year will put up these kind of yards and touchdowns. I usually advise trading QBs after one big week due to the amount of QBs with decent numbers available.

No one is coming close to Brees this year. Their defense is so bad that there will be no running the clock out fourth quarters. Brees can and will be throwing it 40+ times a game and will go for the end zone more times than not.

If you trade Drew Brees you have to know that you’ve lost, no matter who you get, beause he’s the significant No. 1 in his field.

2. Wes Welker/Randy Moss in a PPR league

100 yards and 10 catches. This is what you can expect from both of these men every game. That’s 20 points a game not counting touchdowns, and trust me when I say those will be coming as well.

With the youth of the defense, the Patriots will be in the game throughout and will not stop throwing. While the Saints throw it more, they share the wealth with too many players for any of them to be untradeable outside of Brees.

3.Adrian Peterson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrhBXbVmrWc

There’s all the reason you need.

4.Reggie Wayne

I will be writing an article dedicated solely on his fantasy potential tomorrow so I can’t give away too much here.

Let me just say that you should do everything in your power to get Reggie Wayne. 15 TDs looks very accomplishable this year.

5.Calvin Johnson

Have you ever dated a girl you hated, but she was so good in bed that you just couldn’t break up with her? You guys fought and fought and fought but that only led to more sex and more reasons to stay with her.

That’s Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford. Matt can’t do anything correct right now except throw the deep ball. It just so happens that he has the greatest deep ball WR we have ever seen.

The Lions will be losing. The Lions will be throwing. Matt Stafford will be throwing deep. Calvin Johnson will be getting 100 yards and a TD often.

And there you have it. Five guys, no more, no less. With the right package, you can swivel Michael Turner from me in a heartbeat. Tom Brady is tossable if I have a solid backup. Maurice Jones Drew and Matt Forte can take a hike with the right deal.

But if you have one of these five (technically six for Welker/Moss combo) do not release them for any reason what so ever.

Not even if you’re in a fantasy league with Kanye West and he’s telling you he’s sorry but he’s got the best player of all time.

It’s been nearly seven months since the end of the Super Bowl and an even longer wait since the more important championship game.

Your fantasy league’s.

If you were the fortunate victor of your league, you have spent the past seven months ridiculing your league mercilessly about just how useless and impotent they are.

If you were the unfortunate loser, you have spent the same seven months planning a plot of vengeance so menacing that Indigo Montaya felt you took it to far.

Winner or loser, you have spent the past seven months reading every single fantasy article you could get your hands on.

You bought magazines.

You checked out all your sleeper websites.

You mock drafted until your eyeballs looked like Anton Chigur at the end of No Country for Old Men.

Then…well…there was still three months until the season starts.

Every day you go to your favorite website and see a veretable crop of articles ranking everything from wide receivers to assistants to the assistant trainer’s assistant. You heard people say Adrian Peterson was over-rated only to turn around and find out he was going to run for 8,000 yards and 143 touchdowns.

You watched as Maurice Jones-Drew was the sleeper of the draft and then were told how over-rated he was.

Running backs were down and receivers were up.

And now, with the season starting next Sunday, you realize you know less about your team than Al Davis does about drafting in the 1st round.

Don’t worry, you’re in the same boat as millions.

But there are four simple techniques you can follow to keep your season afloat no matter what your early turnout may be.

1. Do not, I repeat, do NOT sell away your team.

There are two reasons for this:

A. Your league will despise you for stacking up a superior team. This will hurt the league as everyone will be in a rush to play catch up. Sorta like the 2009-2010 NBA season.

B. This is the NFL you are playing with. Anything can happen. People get hurt and backups become heroes. Some unknown free agent can become a superstar. And you know what? Those backups and free agents are lying on the waiver wire waiting for you. Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant, Maurice Jones Drew, the list goes on and on. If your team is near the bottom you will be high on the waiver wire, allowing you first choice at premium free agents.

Which leads to number two.

2.Do not, I repeat, do NOT waste your waiver wire slot.

Sure, your 4th wide receiver just went down and someone dropped Deion Branch and this might be the week he remembers he was once a Super Bowl MVP.

Or he might just remember that he’s third string and getting older by the minute.

If you are high on the waiver wire (numbers one or two) save it for that breakout player who can turn around your season. If you’re low on the wire just save it for when everyone panics and starts talking themselves into newly signed T.J Duckett. Eventually, and trust me on this, your #11 slot will turn into a #1.

3.The Jennifer Aniston Rule

You are 4-0 and winning games by 40-50 points average. You wisely chose Steve Slaton early and traded up to grab Pierre Thomas before he was stolen. You drafted one of the big four wide receivers and took Tony Romo while everyone shied away from him.

What to do now?

Steal, plunder, and pillage every team panicking at 0-4 or 1-3. Send them bloated trades with promise. Offer them your potential for their certainties.

“Darren McFadden and Bernard Berrian for Maurice Jones-Drew. Hell yeah that’s a good trade, man. McFadden blew up big (against the Chiefs but you needn’t mention that) and Bernard Berrian is a deep ball machine with Favre (against the Lions). Maurice Jones-Drew has been average lately (against the Titans) and now you’re adding to your team.”

These conversations MUST happen. Send out terrible trades to the entire league. Remember the most important rule of fantasy football: E.L.L.S-Every Loss Lowers Standards.

Basically, an 0-4 record will have the bottom team more desperate than Jennifer Aniston edging in on a Midlife Crisis.

Which leads into the final rule of early season management.

4.Never Be Satisfied

Back to the team that’s 4-0.

You are destroying your opponents with ravenous fury.

You are the envy of the league and your league smack talk improves with each win.

People are sending you trades but you find yourself content with your undefeated team.

WRONG.

This is how you lose fantasy titles.

Never be satisfied. If you’re 4-0, think of ways to make it to 5-0. Go back and see HOW you won. Did your opponent have a bad week? Did your running backs have easy matchups? Have you been playing the dregs of the league?

Find holes in your team and fill them. If you have the 3rd best TE try and get the 1st. If you have a running back on your bench who is putting up big points but can’t get into your lineup due to you having Adrian Peterson and Thomas Jones, trade someone.

Points on the bench are pointless ones.

All of these rules are simple enough that you would assume them to be well known. Yet every year, in every draft, there’s that guy who goes 0-4 and sends Andre Johnson to the league’s top team for a poo poo platter.

Your goal is to be the guy getting Andre Johnson.

The year 2008 was a precocious one for professional(and fantasy) football to say the least.

LaDanian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook found themselves hitting the mythical age of 30; the kryptonite for NFL running backs.

Sean Alexander found himself old.

Ronnie Brown found himself teamed up with King Willie from Predator II.

Adrian Peterson turned into Tracy McGrady.

Mike Shanahan had made it his personal objective to ruin the fantasy football running back; preaching running back by committee over the 300 yard monster.

Worst of all was that it was working and catching on—both Super Bowl teams used a team of running backs over the standard one.

Looking back, the 2008 NFL Draft was the mother of all “slump busters”; the world’s sexiest fat chick so to speak.

While Darren McFadden was regarded as the headliner of a mediocre crew of running backs, ironically, he ended up as the least productive of the group.

Today, I will be analyzing each rookie running back from the 2008 Draft who made an impact, and search for chances of a sophomore slump.

(Alright, as of now, I will think of another word for sophomore slump. It has become over-used and I’m officially sick of it. If anyone has any ideas for a new name let me know and I promise you will receive credit every time I use it.)

Tim Hightower

2008 Stats

ATT YDS AVG TD AVG DRAFT

143 399 2.8 10 118.5

2009 Schedule

San Fransisco

@Jacksonville

Indianapolis

Houston

@Seattle

@New York

Carolina

@Chicago

Seattle

@St. Louis

@Tennessee

Minnesota

@San Fransisco

@Detroit

St. Louis

Green Bay

Out: Edgerrin James

In: Beanie Wells; Larod Stephens-Howling

The first time you watched Old School I’m going to guess you or someone you were with said, “Oh man, the cowbell guy is funny. He should get his own movie.”

Don’t feel bad, we all thought this.

Then Will Ferrell, the cowbell guy, got his own movies and they were good. . .

At first.

Then the next 1,500 movies sucked because everyone had gotten used to his schtick, and we realized he was better used sparingly at certain spots.

That’s Tim Hightower in a nutshell. He is the NFL’s Will Ferrell.

Throughout the first 7-8 games of the NFL season, we saw Hightower snatch touchdown after touchdown and wished he would just get the start.

Then he finally did and we realized he was only good at the goal line.

Thankfully, the Cardinals coaches did as well and placed Edgerrin James back in the starting lineup.

Good news: Edgerrin James is now gone.

Bad News: The Cardinals spent first and seventh round picks on running backs.

Worse News: The Cardinals schedule. Look at the killer run defenses lined up:

Minnesota Vikings: Rank No. 1, 76.9 rushing yards allowed per game

Chicago Bears: Rank No. 5, 93.5 rushing yards allowed per game

Tennessee Titans: Rank No. 6, 93.9 rushing yards allowed per game

New York Giants: Rank No. 9, 95.8 rushing yards allowed per game

San Fransisco 49ers: Rank No. 13, 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game

Jacksonville Jaguars:Rank No. 13, 106.8 rushing yards allowed per game

If you’re keeping count that’s six teams in the top 13 of run defense, four in the top 10, two in the top five, and the number one overall run defense.

Toss in the simple fact that no team drafts a running back in the first round if they feel comfortable with the one they’ve got, and you have a bad situation for Mr. Hightower this season.

Kevin Smith

2008 Stats

ATT YDS TD REC REC-YDS

238 976 8 39 286

2009 Schedule

@New Orleans

Minnesota

Washington

@Chicago

Pittsburgh

@Green Bay

St. Louis

Seattle

@Minnesota

Cleveland

Green Bay

@Cincinnati

@Baltimore

Arizona

@San Fransisco

Chicago

Out: Rudi Johnson

In: Maurice Morris

For those of you who just got done seeing Transformers II, the nickname for the 2009 Lions: Decepticons, go.

Calvin Johnson is Megatron—an apt nickname for the physical monstrosity.

This would make Matthew Stafford The Fallen, the leader we just learned about.

Last, but certainly not least, would be the second in command, Starscream, or as he is more commonly known, Kevin Smith.

Behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league Kevin Smith put together a surprisingly efficient campaign.

Good News: With Rudi Johnson gone and Maurice Morris in Kevin Smith should see a lot more carries.

Bad News: The Lions are in the NFC North and forced to play Chicago and Minnesota, two of the league’s top 10 run defenses, twice a year.

Worse News: The NFC North’s AFC counterpart is the AFC North, featuring the Steelers and the Ravens, the two best run defenses not named the Vikings.

The Lions will be playing four games against the league’s top three run defenses.

Add in games against San Francisco and an early matchup with the Redskins, and the outlook for the Lions run game is quite bleak.

Chris Johnson

2008 Stats

Att    Yds     TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

251   1,228    9      43      260           1

2009 Schedule

@Pittsburgh

Houston

@N.Y Jets

@Jacksonville

Indianapolis

@New England

Jacksonville

@San Francisco

Buffalo

@Houston

Arizona

@Indianapolis

St. Louis

Miami

San Diego

@Seattle

Out: Lendale White’s eating habits. News out of Tennessee is that he is slimming down.

In: Javon Ringer

Good News: Chris Johnson has stated that he is ready to break loose and do this running back thing solo.

Bad News: Lendale White is still a Titan and they got a steal with Javon Ringer in the fifth round.

Worse News: Five of the first eight games are on the road and those first eight games are loaded with solid run defenses.

This schedule is similar to what the Titans faced last year and we saw how little of a problem that was.

From a fantasy standpoint, Lendale White and Javon Ringer will be snatching touchdowns near the goalline. This isn’t good.

On the bright side, if you are in a points per reception league, Chris Johnson will make up for his points by being the only RB on the team with reliable hands.

Matt Forte

2008 Stats

Att      Yds       TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

316   1,238      8        63      477           4

2009 Schedule

@ Green Bay

Pittsburgh

@ Seattle

Detroit

@Atlanta

@Cincinnati

Cleveland

Arizona

@San Francisco

Philadelphia

@Minnesota

St. Louis

Green Bay

@Baltimore

Minnesota

@Detroit

Out: Kyle Orton

In: Jay Cutler

Matt Forte was the steal of the 2008 NFL Draft. He would’ve been the steal of every fantasy football draft if not for the guy coming up next.

He can do a little bit of everything: run hard, break long runs, catch the pass, and block.

Good News: Jay Cutler means less guys in the box.

Bad News: Four of the first six games are on the road. Thankfully, the news isn’t devastating. The four road games are against porous run defenses.

Worse News: Like the rest of the NFC North, the Bears are forced into games against the Ravens and the Steelers. Unlike the Lions and Packers, the Bears don’t have to play themselves.

What makes Forte such a great player in both the NFL and fantasy football is his ability to be the best receiver on the field. In points per reception leagues, Matt Forte is an absolute monster and will make up for lost points in the rushing game with receiving touchdowns.

The Bears are still waiting for Hester to become their star receiver and in the mean time have yet to draft a WR in the first round.

Meaning Forte is still the best receiver on the team.

And you don’t bring Jay Cutler in to throw less.

Steve Slaton

2008 Stats

Att      Yds       TD     Rec.   Rec.Yds.    Rec TD

268    1.282     9        50       377           1

2009 Schedule

New York Jets

@ Tennessee

Jacksonville

Oakland

@ Arizona

@ Cincinnati

San Francisco

@ Buffalo

@ Indianapolis

Tennessee

Indianapolis

@ Jacksonville

Seattle

@ St. Louis

@ Miami

New England

Out: Ahman Green

In: Experience for Slaton

If you haven’t seen the Real World: Cancun then you need to.

I had a strong feeling it was going to work out based on the sum of its parts; a mix of temperamental hot chicks with boyfriends they couldn’t wait to cheat on, standard All-American hot guy, pretentious guitar player, the standard gay guy, and Cancun on Spring Break.

Unsurprisingly, it all worked out.

In 2008, Steve Slaton was the Real World: Cancun.

All the parts were there; a top notch offense missing its essential RB, the two running backs ahead of him being the always injured Ahman Green and Chris Brown, and a speedy college back who fit the Texans blocking scheme to perfection.

Good News: Ahman Green is gone, meaning no more vultured touchdowns. They also play the oft porous Indianapolis defense twice a year.

Bad News: The Titans and Jaguars are on the schedule twice.

Uh. . . More Good News: Slaton played some of his best games against the league’s top defenses.

In his two games against Jacksonville, Slaton averaged 70 yards receiving, 80 yards rushing, and a touchdown.

Against the Titans, Slaton averaged a whooping 108 yards rushing against one of the league’s top defenses.

Slaton was the consensus RB steal of every fantasy draft. The savvy leagues saw him go in the late 13th to 14th rounds.

Most leagues saw him go un-drafted.

With an easy schedule, no decent backup in sight, and an explosive offense ahead of him, Slaton is lined up for another spectacular season.

Just know he is going in the first round of every draft.

The Others

Darren McFadden. Oakland still has Vargas leading the way. McFadden will have an improved season but nothing to write home about.

Jonathan Stewart. Deangelo Williams will still be getting most of the carries as we saw Stewart fade towards season’s end.

Felix Jones. Valued as a return man and thirrd down back. Not worth drafting in fantasy leagues due to the emergence of Tashard Choice

Rashard Mendenhall. Injured most of last season, Mendenhall should make an impact for the champion Steelers, but Willie Parker is still the man.

Ray Rice. The Baltimore backfield is too crowded for Rice to make a fantasy impact. He will still make the Ravens a better team though.

Tashard Choice. With his spectacular performance against the Steelers, Choice has moved himself into the backup behind the Barbarian. That means he’s a solid handcuff but won’t be seeing many touchdowns.

Ryan Torian/Peyton Hillis. The Broncos drafted Knowshon for a reason.

The rookie running backs of 2008 brought the NFL new life.

They kick started several teams on the way down and elevated a few teams into playoff contention.

The spotlight is now on the Running Back class of 2008 and after analyzing each contender, I’m throwing my hat on Steve Slaton to shine the brightest.

]]> http://www.insidethegridiron.com/fantasy-football/2009/07/13/2009-fantasy-football-preview-sophomore-running-backs/feed/ 0